The Eurasian Context of Global Competition: Forecast of Artificial Intelligence Development for 2026

At the X International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence Journey 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the strategic importance of generative artificial intelligence technologies. He stated that these technologies are becoming a key element in the global landscape, with both major corporations and leading states competing for dominance in the development of foundational language models.

This assertion is supported by Anatoly Smirnov, President of the National Institute for Global Security Studies and Professor at MGIMO. His key observation, presented at the XI Moscow International Financial and Economic Forum, is that "the history of wars is the history of technological breakthroughs." This statement underscores the transformation of artificial intelligence from a neutral tool to a critical component of military and geopolitical strategies, directly impacting national security and sovereignty.

Hybrid Threats as a New Business Reality
In this light, the analysis provided by Anatoly Smirnov, Doctor of Historical Sciences, holds significant practical relevance for the EAEU business community. The concept of cognitive warfare, aimed at "defeating the enemy's consciousness," is poised to transition from theoretical discourse to widespread application. It is anticipated that tactics such as the use of deepfakes, targeted disinformation, and historical falsifications will become standard tools in information operations. This poses direct reputational and operational risks to companies, ranging from targeted attacks on corporate communications to threats to supply chain cybersecurity.

Additionally, the escalation of discussions surrounding lethal autonomous weapons (LAWs) is of paramount importance. Smirnov's reference to the "stability-instability" paradox highlights the potential for the AI arms race to undermine traditional deterrence mechanisms. By 2026, these issues are expected to take center stage at the United Nations, raising concerns about the implications for long-term infrastructure development and investment projects. This uncertainty necessitates that international companies reassess political factors as integral components of their strategic planning processes.

Global Institutional Struggle and the EAEU's Response
In response to these challenges, the focus will intensify on the establishment of norms and standards within global platforms. The concern regarding the dominance of a Western group of countries in the formulation of rules, as noted in Smirnov's presentation, will be addressed through the promotion of an alternative, multipolar model. Efforts are anticipated to be intensified within the frameworks of BRICS and SCO, particularly in the implementation of the SCO Roadmap on AI as well as the principles outlined in the Kazan Declaration and the Statement of the BRICS Leaders on AI in Rio de Janeiro. The objective of these initiatives is to create predictable regulatory frameworks for Eurasian businesses, distinct from those imposed by Western entities.

A pivotal event of the year will be the adoption of resolutions by the United Nations General Assembly, addressing the modalities of AI development and the establishment of a Global ICT Mechanism. The critical question will be whether these platforms can serve as consensus-building tools or whether they will become new arenas of confrontation, akin to the Paris AI Summit where the liberal approach of the United States clashed with the regulated approach of the European Union. The outcome of this institutional struggle will directly influence whether cross-border businesses will face a fragmented regulatory environment or operate under a unified set of rules.

At the national level, the policy of technological sovereignty, previously announced at the highest levels, will enter a phase of systematic implementation. Strict requirements for the origin of technologies and data security in the context of government contracts will have a dual effect: on one hand, it will open up the market for domestic IT solutions, while on the other, it will create new compliance barriers. This trajectory is closely aligned with the objectives set forth in the National AI Development Strategy, aiming to contribute 11 trillion rubles to GDP by 2030. Consequently, 2026 will mark a stage of practical implementation of these strategic goals.

Practical Conclusions for the EAEU Business
Given these emerging trends, several concrete recommendations can be formulated for the EAEU business community. First, there is a need to transition from passive monitoring to proactive threat analysis. Investments in information field monitoring systems, deepfake detection, and cybersecurity measures are no longer merely an expense but a critical element of strategic business resilience.

Secondly, the most pressing task is to actively participate in the development of industry standards. Through platforms such as FBA EAC, businesses can influence the formulation of "soft" norms and requirements within the framework of Eurasian integration, ensuring they are balanced and practically oriented.

Thirdly, strategic investments in human resources are essential. The development of internal expertise in the fields of artificial intelligence and information security, as well as employee training programs, are crucial for adapting to the evolving technological and regulatory landscape.

In conclusion, 2026 will mark the stage at which the thesis regarding the connection between technology and global competition will receive practical validation. The primary challenge for the EAEU business will be to operate in an environment where economic decisions are intertwined with the logic of hybrid confrontation and the struggle for regulatory standards. Success will hinge on the ability not only to mitigate these risks but also to proactively participate in shaping a new rule architecture. In the context of today's "battles without rules" in the AI domain, those who are first to establish and enforce these rules will gain a competitive advantage. By consolidating efforts within the platforms of Eurasian cooperation, the business community can transform external challenges into a foundation for enhancing long-term competitiveness.