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According to Mr. Murychev, he currently sees no prospects for a sustainable decline in inflation. Inflation is accelerating, with additional upward pressure on prices stemming from the situation in the fuel market, the weakening of the ruble, and money supply growth of approximately 13% per annum, which exceeds the Central Bank's forecasts. At the same time, the economy is exhibiting signs of a slowdown: GDP and industrial production growth have virtually stalled, and fixed capital investments have come to a near standstill. The RUIE Business Environment Index for August remains at a critically low level of 39.6 points.
"We are caught in a double bind. Inflation is not yielding, yet the economy, and the industrial sector in particular, is suffocating under the burden of expensive capital," Murychev stated.
He reminded the audience that RUIE has repeatedly emphasized the need to adjust the 4% inflation target. From the perspective of the business community, this target remains elusive. Murychev emphasized that curbing inflation depends on more than just the key interest rate: "The Central Bank cannot tackle inflation and achieve the 4% target on its own." He noted that while coordination between the Government and the Central Bank has strengthened, it has not yet yielded tangible results in reducing inflation.
Addressing the situation in the fuel market, Alexander Murychev expressed hope that it would stabilize. According to him, government actions in this area have intensified, and RUIE members addressing this issue have pledged to resolve existing bottlenecks within the next one to two weeks.
Commenting on the ruble exchange rate, Murychev noted that a level of approximately 85 rubles to the US dollar is the most viable for businesses. "In fact, this is the level we have currently reached. However, it is crucial to maintain it to prevent further volatility. For businesses, the paramount factor is exchange rate predictability," he emphasized.
Regarding the labor market, he assessed that tightness persists, primarily due to a shortage of skilled personnel; however, the problem is not escalating, and the overall situation remains stable.
Answering a question about an interest rate level acceptable to businesses, Alexander Murychev cited figures of up to 10%, with an ideal range of 5–7%. He explained that long-term capital is essential for investment growth, which in turn requires macroeconomic stability. Currently, the economy is experiencing a profound investment pause, making it imperative to stimulate investments in fixed assets, equipment procurement, and the strengthening of core production facilities.
14 September, 2026
Alexander Murychev on RBC Radio: No Prospects for a Rate Cut Yet, the 4% Inflation Target Needs Adjustment
Alexander Murychev, Vice President of RUIE and Chairman of the Board of the FBA EAC, commented on RBC Radio on the Bank of Russia's decision to maintain the key interest rate and its implications for the business community.
According to Mr. Murychev, he currently sees no prospects for a sustainable decline in inflation. Inflation is accelerating, with additional upward pressure on prices stemming from the situation in the fuel market, the weakening of the ruble, and money supply growth of approximately 13% per annum, which exceeds the Central Bank's forecasts. At the same time, the economy is exhibiting signs of a slowdown: GDP and industrial production growth have virtually stalled, and fixed capital investments have come to a near standstill. The RUIE Business Environment Index for August remains at a critically low level of 39.6 points."We are caught in a double bind. Inflation is not yielding, yet the economy, and the industrial sector in particular, is suffocating under the burden of expensive capital," Murychev stated.
He reminded the audience that RUIE has repeatedly emphasized the need to adjust the 4% inflation target. From the perspective of the business community, this target remains elusive. Murychev emphasized that curbing inflation depends on more than just the key interest rate: "The Central Bank cannot tackle inflation and achieve the 4% target on its own." He noted that while coordination between the Government and the Central Bank has strengthened, it has not yet yielded tangible results in reducing inflation.
Addressing the situation in the fuel market, Alexander Murychev expressed hope that it would stabilize. According to him, government actions in this area have intensified, and RUIE members addressing this issue have pledged to resolve existing bottlenecks within the next one to two weeks.
Commenting on the ruble exchange rate, Murychev noted that a level of approximately 85 rubles to the US dollar is the most viable for businesses. "In fact, this is the level we have currently reached. However, it is crucial to maintain it to prevent further volatility. For businesses, the paramount factor is exchange rate predictability," he emphasized.
Regarding the labor market, he assessed that tightness persists, primarily due to a shortage of skilled personnel; however, the problem is not escalating, and the overall situation remains stable.
Answering a question about an interest rate level acceptable to businesses, Alexander Murychev cited figures of up to 10%, with an ideal range of 5–7%. He explained that long-term capital is essential for investment growth, which in turn requires macroeconomic stability. Currently, the economy is experiencing a profound investment pause, making it imperative to stimulate investments in fixed assets, equipment procurement, and the strengthening of core production facilities.
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