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According to Rosstat (the Federal State Statistics Service), inflation has accelerated to 6.32%, while the Bank of Russia's expectations for the year remain in the 6–7% range. Additional upward pressure on prices is being exerted by the situation in the fuel market, the weakening of the ruble, and money supply growth at a rate of approximately 13% per annum, which exceeds the Bank of Russia's forecast range of 7–12%.
At the same time, the economy is showing signs of a slowdown: GDP growth for the first seven months of 2026 amounted to just 0.6% year-on-year, industrial production grew by a mere 0.1%, fixed capital investments in the first half of the year declined by 9.9%, and the manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.8 points in August, returning to contraction territory. The RUIE Business Environment Index for August also remains at a low level of 39.6 points.
RUIE believes that maintaining a high cost of money does not address the root causes of inflation, but rather targets its consequences. Loans at interest rates of 18–20% per annum make any form of modernization a luxury: robotics implementation, fixed asset upgrades, and facility expansions are being postponed. Enterprises are reluctant to take on long-term financing because they do not see how they can generate returns sufficient to cover such high interest rates.
"We cannot fight inflation indefinitely with the interest rate alone—it is like treating a fever without diagnosing the underlying illness. In the current situation, it is evident that prices are rising due to increased tariffs of natural monopolies, expensive fuel, rising operational costs, and disruptions in logistics chains. RUIE notes that while the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia have enhanced the coordination of their actions, this has not yet yielded tangible results in reducing inflation. The 4% target remains difficult to achieve," Murychev concluded.
11 September, 2026
Alexander Murychev: We Cannot Fight Inflation Indefinitely with the Interest Rate Alone
Alexander Murychev, Vice President of RUIE and Chairman of the Board of the FBA EAC, reacted to the Bank of Russia's decision to maintain the key interest rate at 14%: "A pause is not a halt, but business expects bolder steps."
According to Rosstat (the Federal State Statistics Service), inflation has accelerated to 6.32%, while the Bank of Russia's expectations for the year remain in the 6–7% range. Additional upward pressure on prices is being exerted by the situation in the fuel market, the weakening of the ruble, and money supply growth at a rate of approximately 13% per annum, which exceeds the Bank of Russia's forecast range of 7–12%.At the same time, the economy is showing signs of a slowdown: GDP growth for the first seven months of 2026 amounted to just 0.6% year-on-year, industrial production grew by a mere 0.1%, fixed capital investments in the first half of the year declined by 9.9%, and the manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.8 points in August, returning to contraction territory. The RUIE Business Environment Index for August also remains at a low level of 39.6 points.
RUIE believes that maintaining a high cost of money does not address the root causes of inflation, but rather targets its consequences. Loans at interest rates of 18–20% per annum make any form of modernization a luxury: robotics implementation, fixed asset upgrades, and facility expansions are being postponed. Enterprises are reluctant to take on long-term financing because they do not see how they can generate returns sufficient to cover such high interest rates.
"We cannot fight inflation indefinitely with the interest rate alone—it is like treating a fever without diagnosing the underlying illness. In the current situation, it is evident that prices are rising due to increased tariffs of natural monopolies, expensive fuel, rising operational costs, and disruptions in logistics chains. RUIE notes that while the Government of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia have enhanced the coordination of their actions, this has not yet yielded tangible results in reducing inflation. The 4% target remains difficult to achieve," Murychev concluded.
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