Alexander Murychev and Alexey Kazartsev: Rate Cut Is a Step Forward, but Business Needs Real Change
On June 19, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia lowered the key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 14.25% per annum. This marks the ninth consecutive cut since the easing cycle began in March 2025. However, businesses are yet to feel any tangible changes: lending rates for industrial enterprises remain high, ranging from 18% to 24% per annum.
Alexey Kazartsev, Head of the Banking Committee of the FBA EAC, commenting on the Central Bank's decision, noted that this is not enough to turn the tide in the investment sphere. "The Bank of Russia forecasts year-end inflation in the range of 4.5–5.5%, yet the rate remains at a level that does not correspond to such inflation. In an environment where industrial enterprises pay 18% to 24% per annum on loans, large-scale capital investments are impossible. And without them, there will be neither technological modernization nor sustainable growth." According to him, the problem is not solely Russian: the high cost of borrowing is taking a toll on joint projects within the EAEU and on cooperation chains with partners from China, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and other countries. "Financing Eurasian projects requires not only an affordable ruble rate but also predictability in monetary policy. So far, this predictability is lacking, forcing businesses to factor high credit risks into their plans. Our partners in the Eurasian Union are watching the situation and drawing conclusions about Russia's reliability as a destination for long-term investments." 
According to Alexey Kazartsev, a single rate cut is insufficient; additional measures are needed, such as preferential lending programs for industry and investment projects. Combined with further rate cuts, these could provide a real impetus for business activity. For now, he believes, it makes sense for enterprises to take out short-term loans in order to refinance them when rates become even more affordable.
Alexander Murychev, Vice President of the RUIE and Chairman of the Board of the FBA EAC, commenting on the Central Bank's decision, supported the rate cut but emphasized that it remains excessively tight. He cited data showing that since mid-2023, the average real interest rate on loans to non-financial organizations for terms exceeding one year has been at a very high level—11.48% in 2024 and 10.41% in 2025. According to him, the key rate cut has not yet led to cheaper borrowing for the real sector: actual rates for industrial enterprises range from 18% to 24% per annum. Consequently, the sharp slowdown in lending dynamics to non-financial organizations since late 2024 is no coincidence. According to Murychev, the country has moved from a restructuring format that helped adapt to the sanctions regime in 2022–2023 to a format that does not work for economic growth, suppressing domestic demand: "In order to revive business investment activity, a comfortable corridor for the key rate must be below 10% as early as 2026. Without this, there are no prerequisites for transitioning into a new economic cycle in 2027."
The FBA EAC draws attention to the fact that the current rate level remains a serious barrier not only for Russian investments but also for Eurasian cooperation. "Projects that could unite enterprises in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and other countries are being stalled due to the inability to attract financing at an acceptable rate. This hits the entire value chain in Eurasia," the Association notes. The FBA EAC shares the RUIE's position on the need for a consistent reduction of the key rate to below 10% this very year, which would allow businesses to return to long-term planning and investment. Furthermore, it is essential to take into account the real state of the industry, not just macroeconomic targets. Without a change in the monetary policy framework, the transition to a new economic cycle in 2027, which the Ministry of Economic Development is counting on, may prove difficult.