Alexander Biryukov Proposes Dialogue-Based Resolution for Guinea-Bissau Crisis in Moscow
Alexander Biryukov, the representative of FBA EAC in West Africa and Mauritania, provided a comprehensive analysis of the causes and potential implications of the recent military coup in Guinea-Bissau during an interview with Tural Kerimov, a Russian Orientalist and Africanist. The discussion focused on the June 26 coup and its underlying factors.
Biryukov identified the systemic issues inherent in Guinea-Bissau's state structure, which was established during the Portuguese colonial period. The current constitutional framework perpetuates a persistent conflict between the Prime Minister, appointed by Parliament from the ruling party with significant economic powers, and the President, who seeks to consolidate all authority. This inherent tension, characteristic of numerous African states, frequently leads to military coups. The immediate trigger for the current crisis was the policy decisions of President Oumaru Sissoko Embalo, who initially gained power with the support of the ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) but later established his own political faction.
Analyzing the political landscape, the expert highlighted the coalition formed by two prominent opposition figures: Fernando Dias and Domingos Simoes Pereira, the leader of PAIGC. According to objective data, this alliance had a strong likelihood of electoral victory, although the official election results remain undisclosed. Biryukov also emphasized the unique role of the military in the political dynamics, noting that the armed forces typically refrain from long-term political control, opting for temporary interventions followed by the transfer of power to civilian authorities through electoral processes.
Regarding the issue of drug trafficking, Biryukov acknowledged its significant impact on the country's stability. He noted that various military factions are involved in controlling this illicit activity, but while drug trafficking remains a critical challenge, it is not the primary determinant of the current political instability.
Concerning Guinea-Bissau's relations with the Russian Federation, Biryukov stated that the majority of the Bissau population maintains a favorable disposition towards Russia. This sentiment is rooted in the historical assistance provided by the Soviet Union. The expert recalled that numerous members of the political elite, including Domingos Pereira, possess Russian language skills and have studied in the USSR. Biryukov emphasized that there has never been any hostility towards Russia; rather, there have been consistent efforts to engage Russia in addressing economic and political issues.
In terms of future developments, Biryukov outlined several potential scenarios but underscored the inevitability of a new electoral process, unless the military authorities disclose the results of the previous election. He identified Domingos Pereira, the leader of PAIGC, and other opposition figures as the principal contenders for the upcoming elections.
To conclude, Biryukov proposed a specific initiative for conflict resolution: "I have consistently advocated, without any jest, for the convening of a roundtable discussion in Russia, specifically in Moscow, to bring together all political factions in Bissau. The ultimate goal would be to achieve a political resolution, thereby avoiding the repetition of past mistakes that have led to military coups."